This is an idea I've been thinking about for awhile now, and hopefully soon I'll be able to start actually putting some money into it.

Looking at the census info on the largest growing cities and metros in the US, I wonder how much the real estate in these areas has appreciated during that time. I know an area where land that was worth $5,000 per acre two years ago is now worth $30,000 an acre.

If one could accurately prdict what currently undeveloped areas in the US are about to blow up, one could buy acres of empty land there and sell it in a few years at a huge gain. One could make a fortune off of this if they do it regularly enough, or on a large enough scale.

My belief, as yet untested, is that there are patterns and conditions that an area meets before it's ready to grow. And I believe that one would find it fairly easy to identify these patterns and therefore accurately predict what area will incur this growth.

A map of the Dallas/Ft Worth area may provide an example. It looks like the min population center is based between Dallas and Forth Worth. Immediately east of Dallas and immediately west of Ft. Worth, the population is very tiny. These two cities aren't really "central" to their metro are right now; they're more like bookends. For example, a county directly east of Dallas, Rockwall County, had a population of only 43,080 in 2000. That's the whole county! However, the county has grown 68.3% since 1990. If it turns out that this area is growing as residents of the metro area seek to leave the crowded areas west of Dallas, someone who invests in land in Rockwall county could be setting himself up to make a really good return, really soon.

I would need to research this more. But what do people here think?

Real estate speculation is playing monopy for real. It can be very profitable or not, depending on your time frame.

Fortunately, unless condemned, real estate always will appreciate in value; but (unfortunately) might not always be marketable to the point of realizing the appreciation.

Way back in the late 80's I bought an acre in Florida. I looked at the population trends (booming), surrounding city growth plans (booming), businesses relocating to within 20 miles (6) and just about every other thing I could think of, including the fact that the property sat 1 mile from the interstate and a 1/4 mile from the ocean. I thought. "I'm gonna just sit on the property and sell out when I can make some real money."

Well, I'm still sitting on the property. The 80's migration south, shifted to the 90's migration to NY and the Valley with the Dot.Coms. The 90's Dot.Com bubble bursting didn't help.

While the property has tripled in accessed value, it is not very marketable.

But hey. I've got plenty of time and the taxes are only a couple hundred $'s a year.

Good Luck though.

BTW, did you sit for the Bar?

Land speculation is not the most common form of real estate speculation.

Please be warned, far more people loose money with land deals than with improved property.

If you decide to buy some land, I would strongly advise you to improve the property to the extent of a new house, farm use, park, or anything that would generate an income or at least a loss. Raw land is not a tax deductable asset. The taxes (school, water, sewer, and real estate) insurance (liability), and maintenance is alot of money and concern for a piece of dirt.

I've been in the real estate business for over 15 years, I bought some land for the city in tax auctions, but never developed it. One of my business partners bought out my interest, then a few years after he had approved plans, he choose to sell it to another person. From the time that we orginally bought the land until the time that he finally sold the land over 10yrs had passed.

After my business partner sold the property, the new owner was getting fines, because the property wasn't being upkept.

If you want to make some money in the real estate business, buying and selling houses, let me know and I'll help you to do those no money down, no closing cost deals. Because I advise you to do it the right (not just legal) way, you will need to have cash equal to down payment, and closing cost, and you will have to take possession of the property before you rent it out, unless the lender permits you to do otherwise (with is unheard of, but who knows these days).

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