U.S. voters seem more open to a woman or a black presidential candidate
By Adam Nagourney

Sunday, December 10, 2006
International Herald Tribune
NEW YORK

After a 217-year march of major presidential nominees who were, without exception, white and male, the 2008 campaign may offer voters a novel choice.

But as Barack Obama, the senator from Illinois whose father is from Kenya, spent the weekend exploring a presidential bid in New Hampshire, and Hillary Rodham Clinton, the first woman to represent New York in the Senate, called potential supporters in Iowa, the question remains: are Americans prepared to elect an African- American or a woman as president?

Or, to look at it from the view of Democrats hungry for victory in 2008, is the nation more likely to vote for a woman or an African-American for president?

Without question, women and blacks have made significant progress in winning office. The new Congress will include 71 women — one of whom will be the first female speaker of the House — compared with 25 when Representative Geraldine Ferraro, Democrat of New York, became the first woman to run as a major-party vice presidential nominee in 1984. There will be 43 blacks in the new Congress, compared with 13 when the Congressional Black Caucus was formed in 1969. A Gallup Poll in September showed a steady rise in the number of people who expect the nation to elect a woman or an African- American as president one day. Americans, it seems, are much more open to these choices than, say, to someone who is an atheist or who is gay.

Times are indeed changing. But how much?

Over the past of the past eight years, in the view of analysts from both parties, the country has shifted markedly on the issue of gender, to the point where they say voters could very well be open to electing a woman in 2008. That is reflected, they say, in polling data and in the continued success of women running for office, in red and blue states alike. "The country is ready," said Senator Elizabeth Dole, Republican of North Carolina, who ran unsuccessfully for the presidential nomination in 2000. "I'm not saying it's going to happen in '08. But the country is ready."

By contrast, for all the excitement stirred by Obama, it is much less certain that an African-American could win a presidential election. Not as many blacks have been elected to prominent positions as have women. Some high- profile black candidates — Harold Ford Jr., a Democrat running for the Senate in Tennessee, and Michael Steele, a Republican Senate candidate in Maryland — lost in November. And demographics might be an obstacle as well: Black Americans are concentrated in about 25 states — typically blue ones, like New York and California. While black candidates cannot assume automatic support from black voters, they would at least provide a base. In states without large black populations, the candidate's cross-over appeal must be huge.

"All evidence is that a white female has an advantage over a black male — for reasons of our cultural heritage," said the Reverend Jesse Jackson, the civil rights leader who ran for president in 1984 and 1988. Still, he said, for African-American and female candidates, "It's easier — emphatically so."

Ferraro offered a similar sentiment. "I think it's more realistic for a woman than it is for an African-American," said Ferraro.

Many analysts suggested that changing voter attitudes could best be measured in choices for governors, since they, like presidents, were judged as chief executives, rather than legislators. There will be one black governor next year — Deval Patrick in Massachusetts, the second in U.S. history.

By contrast, women will be governors of nine states, including Washington, Arizona and Michigan, all potential battleground states in 2008, a fact that is no doubt viewed favorably by advisers to Clinton.

"Voters are getting more comfortable with seeing governors as CEOs of states," said Governor Kathleen Sebelius, a Kansas Democrat. Governor

Jennifer Granholm, a Michigan Democrat who won a second term last month, said in an interview that when she first ran, she had to work harder. "Not this time," she said. "They are used to a woman being governor."

Of course, governors don't have to handle national security. And Clinton has used her six years in the Senate to try to counter the stereotype that women would not be as strong on the issue, especially with the nation at war. Clinton won a seat on the Armed Services Committee, and was an early supporter of the war in Iraq.

Obama is in many ways an unusual African-American politician, and that is why many Democrats, and Republicans, view him as so viable.

Obama is a member of a post-civil- rights generation of black politicians and is not identified with leaders like Jackson and the Reverend Al Sharpton of New York, who are polarizing to many white voters. He has a warm and commanding campaign presence that, as he showed in Illinois, cuts across color lines.

Donna Brazile, a prominent Democratic strategist who is black, said that she had been deluged with e-mail messages from people looking to volunteer for Obama — and that most of the requests were from white voters.

Moreover, there is abundant evidence that attitudes toward black candidates are changing among white voters. In Tennessee, Ford lost his bid to become the state's first black senator since Reconstruction, but by only three percentage points.

Race and gender are big issues in American politics, but they are not the only ones, particularly in the coming race. Obama, should he run, may find his lack of experience will be far more troublesome to voters than his color. He is 45 and serving his first term.

Obama said that many black voters he spoke with have serious questions about whether America is ready to elect an African-American president.

"I think there is a protectiveness and a skepticism within the African-American community that is grounded in their experiences," Obama said in an interview. "But the skepticism doesn't mean there's a lack of support."

Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting.

'...the question remains: are Americans prepared to elect
an African- American or a woman as president?---Jeff Zeleny

To answer the question: 'We are about to find out'.

And...Mr. Zeleny beginning the labeling that is likely to be the style of media going forward.

If elected Barak Obama will not be an African American president.

He will be a Kenyan-Irish-American president.

And don't worry, I will not 'badger' the board with insisting on the difference, but...

Kenyans should be pissed at the dismissal of their heritage and ancestral nationality.

Sorry.

By the way, I wonder if they will have the audacity to call him a 'black' president.

I've never heard called a 'white' president.

We are about to find out...I hope.

PEACE

Jim Chester

Well now ....

It's been 6 months since this questions was asked!! And, we've still got 8 months to go until the primaries begin.

It would seem as though America is being very accepting of both a woman and a Black candidate. Obama is still going strong ... however, it does seem as if some of his appeal is wearing off. In recent polls, Hillary has picking up ground and her numbers are surpassing all other candidates.

Still, it's a long way to the finish line. There are still at least another 6 major debates that will give us a little more insight into the candidates and allow them to showcase their plans for America. As it is, only two real "plans" have been revealed ... both on health care, one by Obama and one by John Edwards. With all the problems we are facing as a nation, both domestically and throughout the world, that's a pretty sad thing. How are we supposed to try and make an informed decision when there's no information to decide on?

All-in-all, I see this campaign as being good for America. It's showing that we have indeed come a long way ... just having a woman and a Black man being a strong contender this far in the game. Media attacks and the fickleness of the American public notwithstanding, both Hillary and Obama are being taken seriously in their quest for the presidency. It shows that it's not as staunchly a "white man's world" anymore ... as it has always been.

My guess is that we will see the first woman president emerge from this contest. America might be ready for a Black man as a candidate ... but, it's hard to believe they are actually ready to elect one to the White House. However, I think that just by being in it as strong as he is, as long as he makes it to primary election day, he wins ... we all do!! It's making America stronger. It's making America more wise.